Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,467,554$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,347,264.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 60.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,347,264.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,039$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,377.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,377.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,671,706$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,629$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,044.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(103,044.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,571$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,464.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,464.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,876$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $208,392$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315,388.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 89.9)}}\) (asimptote \(315,388.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25,779$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(646 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,370.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 83.1)}}\) (asimptote \(40,370.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,786$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,905$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{219,724.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 166.9)}}\) (asimptote \(219,724.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $575$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(47.2 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{643.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(643.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,060$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $29,764$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,130.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 82.6)}}\) (asimptote \(38,130.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $712$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{673.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 48.9)}}\) (asimptote \(673.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,695$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,994$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(159 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592,776.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 177.2)}}\) (asimptote \(592,776.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $471$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(833.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,845$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,828$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(134 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,172.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 92.5)}}\) (asimptote \(27,172.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $672$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.57 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{862.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 74.2)}}\) (asimptote \(862.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,128$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,517$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(163 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,714.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 81.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,714.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $133$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.35 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,093$ on 2020-06-26
